Betting the farm

President Bush had more to say about energy in SOTU 2007 compared to last but without the catch phrase, America is addicted to oil.

Extending hope and opportunity depends on a stable supply of energy that keeps America's economy running and America's environment clean. For too long our nation has been dependent on foreign oil. And this dependence leaves us more vulnerable to hostile regimes, and to terrorists -- who could cause huge disruptions of oil shipments, and raise the price of oil, and do great harm to our economy.

It's in our vital interest to diversify America's energy supply -- the way forward is through technology. We must continue changing the way America generates electric power, by even greater use of clean coal technology, solar and wind energy, and clean, safe nuclear power. (Applause.) We need to press on with battery research for plug-in and hybrid vehicles, and expand the use of clean diesel vehicles and biodiesel fuel. (Applause.) We must continue investing in new methods of producing ethanol -- (applause) -- using everything from wood chips to grasses, to agricultural wastes.

We made a lot of progress, thanks to good policies here in Washington and the strong response of the market. And now even more dramatic advances are within reach. Tonight, I ask Congress to join me in pursuing a great goal. Let us build on the work we've done and reduce gasoline usage in the United States by 20 percent in the next 10 years. (Applause.) When we do that we will have cut our total imports by the equivalent of three-quarters of all the oil we now import from the Middle East.

To reach this goal, we must increase the supply of alternative fuels, by setting a mandatory fuels standard to require 35 billion gallons of renewable and alternative fuels in 2017 -- and that is nearly five times the current target. (Applause.) At the same time, we need to reform and modernize fuel economy standards for cars the way we did for light trucks -- and conserve up to 8.5 billion more gallons of gasoline by 2017.

Achieving these ambitious goals will dramatically reduce our dependence on foreign oil, but it's not going to eliminate it. And so as we continue to diversify our fuel supply, we must step up domestic oil production in environmentally sensitive ways. (Applause.) And to further protect America against severe disruptions to our oil supply, I ask Congress to double the current capacity of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. (Applause.)

America is on the verge of technological breakthroughs that will enable us to live our lives less dependent on oil. And these technologies will help us be better stewards of the environment, and they will help us to confront the serious challenge of global climate change. (Applause.)

The White House expands on this theme with this web site.

We need a Manhattan project. What we're getting is smoke and mirrors.



An MSNBC editor John Schoen, whose articles I've reviewed before, comments on Mr. Bush's speech and its implications. He speaks of subsidies to the ethanol industry, as well as the following two items:

Higher prices for the natural gas — needed to generate heat to brew ethanol — has also gone up.

and

The administration is relying on another “safety value” — a technology to produce ethanol from the cellulose in corn stalks and other plants like switchgrass that can be produced more cheaply than corn. So far, this so-called “cellulosic” process is much more expensive than corn-based ethanol. Major research breakthroughs will be required to make it economically competitive.

The first point hints that much in the way of fossil fuels is needed for ethanol production. Heat for fermentation is only one of the energy inputs. See my earlier posts about EROEI, energy returned on energy invested.

The second point reflects a contradiction between claim and fact. Remember, Mr Bush claimed:

America is on the verge of technological breakthroughs

but Mr. Schoen points out that a process (from switchgrass cellulose) that is supposed to be cheaper (read: requiring fewer energy inputs) than corn, turns out to be "much more expensive".

An MSNBC blogger, Alan Boyle, explores the SOTU energy implications here from a more scientific viewpoint.

Worthy of note is the new Congress' 100 hours legislation on energy:

We will energize America by achieving energy independence, and we will begin by rolling back the multi-billion dollar subsidies for Big Oil.
H.R. 6, "Creating Long-Term Energy Alternatives for the Nation Act." passed 264-163, Jan. 18th, 2007