the arithmetic of drilling

Per segment on CBSNews tonight Offshore Drilling debated

21 million barrels a day consumed in States
18 billion barrels offshore total would take 2.5 years to consume in States
if approved today, it would have no effect on the price of oil in 5 to 10 years

Just a red herring?

NPR: Offshore Drilling May Have Little Effect on Oil Prices

Here's Slate's take.
Problem is the obstinately (how about impossible?) cellulosic ethanol and the non-science background of the Shell chief.

TNR has this to say in Drilling Deeper:

This past Wednesday, President Bush called for ending a federal ban on offshore oil drilling, two days after John McCain flip-flopped to take the same position. The idea may or may not have merit in the long run, but what it won't do is lower gas prices in the short term: The Department of Energy estimates that it would take more than 20 years for either production levels or prices to be affected by a repeal of the ban on offshore drilling. Because the amount of oil at stake is so tiny (about 19 billion barrels, equivalent to around seven months of global consumption), it won't do much at all to ease jitters or help deflate a bubble in oil markets.

One element that appears in many of these discussions is time, or the lack thereof.


TruTV has a series about oil drilling and drillers.

mainstream ineluctable

Charlie Rose featured a half-hour panel yesterday on oil. The lead member was one Charles Maxwell who introduced Hubbard and peak oil, which of course flew over the heads of everyone else at the table.

Also, in the past week, I overheard a pundit use the term 'apocalypse' in connection with the current 'spike'.

MSNBC: Unlike 70s, there is no more supply to quench growing appetite for crude