Does this sound credible?

MSNBC reports on a preliminary EIA report.

The analysis reflected a sharp change from the department's projections a year ago when it predicted oil prices in constant dollars _ not counting normal inflation _ would decline to $31 a barrel by 2025.

The report, issued Monday by the department's Energy Information Administration, now projects oil will cost an average $54 a barrel in 2025 and $57 a barrel in 2030 before inflation. Currently, crude oil prices have been hovering around $60 a barrel, briefly soaring as high as $70 earlier this year.

and

In the reference case—one of several cases included in AEO2006—the average world crude oil price continues to rise through 2006 and then declines to $46.90 per barrel in 2014 (2004 dollars) as new supplies enter the market. It then rises slowly to $54.08 per barrel in 2025.

and

In the AEO2006 reference case, world petroleum demand is projected to increase from about 82 million barrels per day in 2004 to 111 million barrels per day in 2025. The additional demand is expected to be met by increased oil production from both OPEC and non-OPEC nations.

What's changed in one year? Does EIA think its reference case is the most likely? Where will the additional supply come from exactly to satisfy continued current levels of use nevermind the projected future ones? What alternate cases will be discussed later, presumably in February? What kind of worst case scenario and what assumptions? See also Where on the Risk Continuum?

Republican Representative Roscoe Bartlett gave a one-hour special order speech on the floor of the House in which at one point he rejected the EIA numbers. Truly, it's laughable if it weren't so sad.