Suddenly the alarmists who foresaw an imminent era of oil scarcity are silentNot me.
As this bleak scenario gained acceptance, it became easy to assume that the price of oil would defy the laws of gravity and break the barrier of $100 per barrel.Appealing to the laws of physics, now that's a first.
But a bit farther out, between roughly 2010 and 2012, there is a good chance that supply trends will overtake demand, raising spare production capacity to a range between 7 to 10 percent of demand.Methinks we've heard that before. Higher prices lead to more investment lead to more oil, nevermind geology. Mr. Maugeri concludes with more gobbledygook:
..., contrary to all the scare scenarios, ... China's oil-consumption growth has the potential to ease substantially, while in most industrial countries consumption growth is approaching zero and may start to drop.and
One thing is certain: if prices should drop significantly before the investments now underway reach the point of no return, they could come to a screeching halt, precipitating another price spike.
Newsweek also presents an article on Big Oil's malaise, two factors being:
the maturing of old reserves and more and more risky exploration projectsLeft unspecified are which reserves have matured and how significant a role they play in the global oil picture. Could those include the venerable Saudi fields?
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